“Each one should test their own actions. Then they can take pride in themselves alone, without comparing themselves to someone else.” — Galatians 6:4

Introduction

Survivorship bias is a hidden danger that can distort our thinking, especially in the process of recovery. It tricks us into focusing only on success stories while ignoring the unseen struggles of those who didn’t "make it." At its core, survivorship bias is a form of comparison, and comparison is one of the greatest thieves of joy in our spiritual and personal journey.

In this lesson, we will explore:✅ What survivorship bias is and how it affects our recovery.✅ Why comparison can damage our healing process.✅ What Scripture says about personal growth and recovery.✅ How to work out our own salvation (Philippians 2:12-13).✅ Practical steps to break free from unhealthy comparison.

1. Understanding Survivorship Bias

What Is Survivorship Bias?

Survivorship bias is the mistake of only looking at people who succeeded, while ignoring those who struggled or failed. This leads to false conclusions about what it takes to "win" in recovery or life.

Historical Example: WWII Planes

During World War II, engineers studied planes returning from battle, looking at bullet holes to decide where to add armor. They planned to reinforce the damaged areas, thinking this would improve survival rates. However, Abraham Wald, a mathematician, pointed out a flaw in their thinking:

🔹 They were only looking at planes that survived.🔹 They were ignoring the planes that didn’t make it back.🔹 The damage they weren’t seeing—on the missing planes—was in critical areas that led to crashes.

How This Applies to Recovery

In recovery, we often do the same thing:🚫 We focus on people who succeeded.🚫 We ignore those who struggled or relapsed.🚫 We assume that if we copy "survivors," we will have the same outcome.🚫 We get discouraged when our journey doesn’t look like theirs.

💡 Lesson: The key to recovery isn’t copying another person’s exact path—it’s seeking God’s unique plan for your life.

2. The Danger of Comparison in Recovery

"Comparison is the thief of joy."

How Comparison Hurts Recovery

🚩 Unrealistic Expectations – We assume that if we just follow someone else’s success story, we will achieve the same results.🚩 Discouragement & Shame – When our progress doesn’t match someone else’s, we feel like failures.🚩 Lack of Trust in God – We trust in methods or programs over God’s unique plan for us.🚩 Forgetting the Hidden Battles – Just because someone looks recovered doesn’t mean they don’t struggle.

📖 “For we walk by faith, not by sight.” — 2 Corinthians 5:7

💡 Lesson: True recovery is not about comparing your journey to someone else's. It’s about trusting that God is working in you, even when progress is slow or unseen.

3. Working Out Your Own Salvation (Philippians 2:12-13)

📖 “Work out your own salvation with fear and trembling, for it is God who works in you both to will and to do for His good pleasure.”

Paul does not mean that we earn salvation. Jesus’ work on the cross is finished (John 19:30). Instead, this verse refers to our personal growth, understanding, and walk with God.

How This Relates to Recovery

✔ Your Journey Is Unique – Just as everyone’s relationship with Christ is different, so is their healing process.✔ Spiritual Growth Is a Process – Salvation is complete, but sanctification (our growth in Christ) takes time—just like recovery.✔ God Is at Work in You – It is God who works in you, not a program, a success story, or a recovery method.

💡 Lesson: Your recovery is part of your faith journey. Focus on your relationship with God, not someone else’s path.

4. Biblical Truths About Comparison & Recovery

God Sees What We Cannot (1 Samuel 16:7)

When Samuel was looking for Israel’s next king, he thought David’s older brothers looked like the right choice. But God said:📖 “Man looks at the outward appearance, but the Lord looks at the heart.”

💡 Lesson: Just because someone looks successful doesn’t mean their journey is perfect. Trust God to see the unseen.

The Narrow Path Over the Broad Road (Matthew 7:13-14)

The world promotes popular recovery methods, but that doesn’t mean they are God’s plan for you.

💡 Lesson: Seek God’s guidance, not just what the majority is doing.

Paul’s Thorn in the Flesh (2 Corinthians 12:9)

Paul had a weakness (his "thorn"), but God told him:📖 “My grace is sufficient for you, for My power is made perfect in weakness.”

💡 Lesson: Recovery may never be perfect, but God’s grace is enough.

5. Breaking Free from Comparison in Recovery

🔹 Stay in Your Own Lane – Focus on your journey, not someone else’s. (Galatians 6:4)🔹 Lean on God, Not Just Stories – Testimonies inspire, but ultimate healing comes from Christ.🔹 Celebrate Progress, Not Perfection – Small steps forward are victories.🔹 Pray for Discernment – Ask God to guide you instead of looking to others for the roadmap.

📖 “Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding.” — Proverbs 3:5

Final Thought: Your Journey Is Between You and God

Survivorship bias tells us that success looks a certain way. But true recovery isn’t about being a “survivor” by human standards—it’s about being transformed by Christ.

✅ God sees every heart, every struggle, and every unseen victory.✅ Keep walking in faith, knowing He is with you every step of the way.

Reflection Questions:

1. Have I been comparing my recovery journey to others?

2. Do I trust God’s process, even when it doesn’t look like someone else’s?

3. How can I focus more on my personal relationship with Christ instead of external success?

4. Where have I seen God’s unseen work in my healing process?